Free Agent Hot Stove: Jon Lester
As I continue with the offseason free agent predictions, I look at the other starting pitcher on the market that is not amongst the bigger names, but can still be a soldi contributor. At one point, Jon Lester was a top-tier pitcher in the league. He is now at the stage in his career where he is no longer a 1-2 starter, but but is a solid 4-5 starter. He is coming off of a down year, and will his age turn off a lot of teams?
As I just stated, Lester is coming off of a down year. In 12 starts, he had a 3-3 record, with a 5.16 ERA, in 61 innings. However, this down year could be contributed to the shortened season, where a lot of veterans in the league did struggle. He did win 13 games in 2019, but had a 4.46 ERA. It does seem like he is starting to digress. In 2018, he had an incredible season, where he led the league with 18 wins, and had a good 3.32 ERA. He is entering his age 37 season, but has proven to be quite durable, even with his performance declining.
I believe the top two teams to sign Lester are the Chicago Cubs and the Tampa Bay Rays. Lester re-signing with Chicago seems like the most likely fit, as they have announced that they would love a reunion. Given his success for the Cubs for many years and his great Postseason performances, I believe that is his most likely fit.
Honestly, I do not have a definitive number two team to sign Lester. Given his digression and how many other good arms are in free agency, Lester has fallen by the wayside. I think Tampa Bay could be an interesting fit, as they need starting pitching depth. They have two frontline starters in Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, with lefty Ryan Yarbrough listed as the the three starter. They have a great bullpen that had gotten them to the World Series in 2020, but they could use an extra starting pitcher. Lester is not a remarkable arm at this point in his career, but he will eat up innings and has been incredible durable. They have a good enough pitching staff with incredible depth, so if they could get four or five innings max out of Lester, they can turn the ball to the bullpen. It doesn’t come across as the most likely fit, but it certainly is possible.
I believe that Lester will get a one year/$9 million dollar deal is likely. Due to his performance taking a steep downfall over the past two seasons, I don’t foresee him getting a multi-year deal. More teams will be in play I’d imagine, and a Boston Red Sox reunion is not out of the pitcher. Regardless of where he ends up, one team will be getting a great veteran clubhouse presence, that has had a propensity to be a big game pitcher.