Free Agent Hot Stove: Masahiro Tanaka
As I continue with the second-tier free agents on the market, I look at the players like Didi Gregorius, that have potential to be difference makers on a playoff level team. One of these players on that level is starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka. Since being a huge international star in Japanese professional baseball for many years, to a consistently good starting pitcher for the New York Yankees since 2014, Tanaka has cemented a very good legacy for himself. Though he is entering his age 32 season, it is apparent that he can still be a key contributor in a Major League starting rotation.
When looking at Tanaka’s resumé, one of the biggest factors that stands out is his consistency. Though wins aren’t valued as high in modern baseball, Tanaka has never had a season below 11 wins in his entire seven year career. He has also been a two-time All-Star, and has struck out about 150 plus batters every year. It is fair to say that though his MLB tenure hasn’t been as utterly dominant as I’m sure he and the Yankees have hoped when he first came over, he has been a good top of the rotation starter.
Quite possibly the biggest aspect of his pitching that stands out is his durability. Though there has been a few years where he missed a few starts, he has been quite durable. In a time where starting pitchers aren’t really throwing a lot of innings year by year, he still can give a rotation significant innings. Not including the shortened 2020 season, he averaged 168 innings per year in his first 6 seasons. He had an up and down 2020, as he had a 3.54 ERA in 48 innings, over 10 starts. Though this is not a top of the line season by any stretch, he surely had a season that was above league average. He did struggle in the Postseason, but I attribute that more to a lack of innings going into the playoffs than a decline due to age. Tanaka is an experienced veteran, that is used to getting his starts in and getting better as the year goes on. This year was like no other, and he only threw 48 innings during the shortened season, and was not able to get into a groove going down the stretch like he usually does. Though I’m sure he will never return to the pitcher that he was in the first couple of years in the MLB, I’m sure that he will continue to be a solid arm for the foreseeable future.
I believe that the two teams with the highest chance of landing Tanaka are the Yankees and the Los Angeles Angels. The Yankees are the clear front runner to get him, as he has had success in New York, and he eats innings. The biggest question mark going into the 2021 season for the Yankees is their rotation, as it is pretty much a toss-up for the next four rotation spots behind ace Gerrit Cole. Luis Severino is likely to return, and when healthy he has ace-level stuff, but he is coming off major injury. Domingo German had a very good 2019 season, but is facing a suspension going into next season. James Paxton is also a free agent. The only top candidates to return to the Yankees rotation are Deivi Garcia and Jordan Montgomery, and neither one of those guys have had the pedigree that Tanaka has had. They both have potential, but neither pitcher has had sustained success due to age. This is quite concerning for New York, as they certainly have the offense and bullpen to be a perennial Postseason powerhouse, but the rotation is very poor. Tanaka would provide innings for the team, and even if he is not dominant, this is still very valuable. If any team can afford to have a guy like Tanaka that will be a borderline league average pitcher but will eat up innings, it is the Yankees. Their offense has potential to put up five-plus runs in any given game.
The case for Tanaka in Los Angeles is very similar, as they do have a poor rotation that needs a couple more good arms. However, another contributor to the Angels case is Shohei Ohtani. The young Japanese phenom has not been quite the player that the Angels have hoped for since coming over. Tanaka could provide a mentor-like presence to Ohtani, as they come from very similar paths, and are both Japanese-born players. Tanaka would also provide a veteran presence to the Angels as a whole, and he could help lead Mike Trout and the Angels to the Postseason.
I think that Tanaka will receive a deal in the three year/$50 million dollar range. He is entering his age 32 season, but he does have the look of a pitcher that can remain relevant and a good contributor for years to come. It is quite possible that more teams will arise in the Tanaka rumors, but I believe that he will most likely re-sign with the Yankees.