Free Agent Hot Stove: Trevor Bauer

Today will be the start of my free agent predictions and player analysis. When looking at top free agents of the 2020-21 offseason, it is clear that Trevor Bauer is the most highly coveted pitcher on the market.

Bauer has always been a very solid pitcher. Over his nine year career, he has a 3.90 ERA, in 1,190 innings, with 1,279 strikeouts. However, after his tremendous 2020 season, he saw his status go from a solid two or three starter in the rotation, to a top-tier ace that any squad would love to have. He was incredible this season, as he had a league-leading 1.73 ERA, 100 strikeouts, and a 0.795 WHIP. It is no wonder why he is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award. However, there is some baggage that potentially could come along with signing Bauer. His bold personality and often controversial social media presence have caused some stir in the baseball world. He also is turning thirty in January, so it makes you wonder, will he repeat his 2020 performance or was it just a one-time deal in the shortened season?

In my opinion, it is a very real possibly that he could receive a five year or more deal. Although he may never repeat this year’s dominance, he has proven to be a consistent upper-tier arm. Even in his average years he would be a two starter on most teams, or a three starter on clubs with best of the best rotations. I would not be all too concerned with his age, as thirty is not incredible old for a pitcher like Bauer. He doesn’t throw 97 plus, nor does he have a long injury history. He is a crafty arm that can dial it up around 94-95, but heavily relies on his many off-speed pitches to get him through his outings. We tend to see pitchers like Bauer stay effective as they reach forty, as even though speed could decrease, good off-speed pitches can never go away.

I believe that there are three main players in the Bauer sweepstakes: the New York Mets, New York Yankees, and the San Francisco Giants. The Mets have a new owner, that is predicted to be a big spender. With the loss of Marcus Stroman, the Mets need a quality two starter. If they could acquire Trevor, they’d go into bulk of next year with the rotation of DeGrom, Bauer, Syndergaard, Pederson, and possibly Seth Lugo or another free agent. The Yankees are in the Bauer race, but I foresee the Mets and the Giants going harder for him. It wouldn’t be a bad bet to place that Bauer could end up on the Yanks, but I believe they will be more focused on filling in their rotation void with free agent veteran Charlie Morton, and also put more focus on resigning their star infielder DJ Lemahieu. The Giants already have had Bauer rumblings, as they supposedly are looking to offer him a five-year deal, worth $150 million. They just fell short in the 2020 season of having a Postseason spot, and they are in dire need of an ace. Plus, they have money to spend.

Bauer has announced that he is open to all deals, regardless of team, so it is interesting to see where he lands. However, because he is clearly the best free agent starting pitcher, I don’t see the Bauer sweepstakes being around for too deep into the offseason.

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